Most of us have a concrete view of where the price of Bitcoin
is headed long term. Regardless of whether you are bullish or bearish, that is the stance that you take because in this market you cannot be on the sidelines. Things change far too quickly and if you decide to stay in regardless, you are in it for the wrong run. Oh, did I say wrong? I meant long. Anyway, this is the way it is and you are either long or short as far as the big picture is concerned. It all depends on your risk appetite and your expectations of this market. That is the macro play and most of us already have a clear position on that.
It is the micro developments that get traders the most confused. One instance, the price appears bullish and the next instance it appears bearish. This is why it is important not to focus too much on the noise and to just stay focused on the big picture. My views on the big picture are pretty straightforward. If we have a break and close above the 200-day moving average with follow up, I will wait for the right conditions to go long because that for me would be a cue that BTC/USD has broken the downtrend.
However, if we see a break below the $8,000 mark and then a decline below the trend line support that separates the current parabolic uptrend from the next bear trend, that is a point where I go bearish full throttle and I'll give you my reasoning. From 2017 till now, it has been far too easy to be bullish on the market just like the S&P 500. You could have picked any altcoin and rode it to its all-time high. However, now we are seeing things change and even the S&P 500 is ready to keel over. Does this mean anything good for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? Absolutely not! Quite the contrary, this market will be hit the hardest in the event of a sharp decline or crash in the S&P 500. The fact that Bitcoin dominance is about to break out of an ascending triangle should serve as a clear warning to all of us that the bullish ship has sailed and a nuclear winter may be just around the corner in the cryptocurrency markets.